#1

ce could be pa

in Quasselecke 14.08.2018 10:03
von jokergreen0220 • 1.730 Beiträge

Im going to write in defence of Capitals RW Alex Ovechkin, if only because there have been some recent attacks and, while I can certainly live with them being directed at Ovechkin, the analytical process ought to be better, particularly if its going to be a hit piece on the leagues leading goal-scorer. Michael Crabtree Jersey . Yes, Im writing to defend a player that is on pace for a 59-goal season, when the second-best goal-scorer in the NHL this season, Torontos Phil Kessel, is on pace for 43. Naturally, I didnt think that Ovechkin would be a player that needed much defending, but hes taken some hits lately. Im going to largely ignore his contributions on the power play because its not in any dispute that Ovechkin is great with the man advantage and can make a difference even when he doesnt score. On one side of the discussion, we have the Toronto Star, with their Department of Hockey Analytics, and while there are plenty of flaws in Ovechkins game, they somehow determined that his goals-for/against percentage was the way to illustrate the problem. Never mind that goals for/against percentage is essentially measuring plus-minus. Ill get to that in a moment but, first, also peruse the Hockey News piece by Ken Campbell who, after Ovechkin was minus-5 against Columbus, decided that Ovechkin has to decide what kind of player he is. After all, Ovechkin was minus-17 on the season after that game. Whats odd about using plus-minus to denigrate Ovechkins contributions is that anyone doing serious analytical work in hockey has been against using plus-minus because it involves so many factors beyond an individual players control (not least of which are the contributions of nine other skaters and two goaltenders when the game is 5-on-5) and, generally, involves small samples because goals are relatively rare events. Its funny to find myself in this position, because I can be a bit of an apologist for plus-minus. You spend enough time around the game and that thinking can be pretty common, and when the sample is large enough, you can get a pretty decent list of players at both ends of the spectrum. (For example, heres the list of players with the best cumulative plus-minus since 2000, and here are the worst.) But, Ive at least learned that there are many other factors that go into whether a player is a plus or minus player, and they must be considered if youre going to attempt to pass judgment on a single season or, especially, a portion of a season. So, lets take a look at some factors that are at play to make Alex Ovechkin a minus-17. First off, the shooting percentage of others on the ice with Ovechkin at 5-on-5 is ridiculously low. His 6.3% is only ahead of fourth-liners Aaron Volpatti and Jay Beagle among Capitals forwards. The suggestion could be made -- and of course it has been -- that Ovechkin isnt making those around him better, but here are the 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentages when Ovechkin has been on the ice for the past five seasons: 10.36%, 8.62%, 8.05%, 11.76%, 9.09%. Youre really going to have to dig for reasons, other than poor luck and ineffective shooters, to explain even-strength shooting effectiveness declining by 40% over last season, especially when Ovechkin himself is shooting 10.6% (18 goals, 170 shots) at 5-on-5. Taking away Ovechkins 18 goals on 170 shots, leaves the other Capitals to score eight goals on 242 shots (3.3%) with Ovechkin on the ice. Marcus Johansson, his most common left winger, has one goal on 51 shots. This undeniably effects plus-minus, right? Of course it does. Give Ovechkin an average on-ice shooting percentage (say, 8%) and that is a difference of about seven goals. At the other end of the rink, Ovechkin is getting burned with a .909 save percentage at 5-on-5. Naturally, the argument will be that Ovechkins defensive play is what leads to that low percentage. Keep in mind, that percentage is well below career norms for him (.922 over the past five seasons, including this one) and ranks near the bottom on the Capitals roster. Use that typical save percentage, on 439 shots against, and that becomes a difference of 5-6 goals. So, why not take a look at where the shots are coming from with Ovechkin on the ice? According to Some Kind of Ninjas Shot Tracker, shots against the Capitals with Ovechkin on the ice at even strength, come from an average distance of 34.5 feet. In the previous five seasons, it has been 34.2, 36.6, 35.8, 34.6 and 35.9 feet on average. There can be an argument made, based on those average shot distances, that Ovechkins most effective defensive performances were in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 (the Dale Hunter season), but there really isnt a huge difference; goaltenders arent suddenly flummoxed by 34-foot shots when 36-footers are easy pickings. On top of that, best of luck trying to identify those particular seasons as anything close to Ovechkins best. Why? Because he scored 70 goals and 150 points in 157 games over those two seasons, producing the two lowest point scoring rates of his career. Yes, even lower than this season, when virtually no one else puts the puck in the net with him on the ice. Of course Ovechkin is not a defensive whiz, but that shouldnt stand as an indictment any more than it has for elite offensive players throughout the history of the game. Seriously, take a look at the Top 10 goal-scorers in the league, none of whom put the puck in the net like Ovechkin, and identify the ones that are notably strong backcheckers. Some are: Joe Pavelski, Alexander Steen, Patrick Sharp, but theres no reason to believe that right wingers Kessel or Corey Perry or Patrick Kane are doing brilliant work in the defensive end. Heres the thing: theyre all great players! Part of the trouble for Ovechkin is that the Capitals havent been able to win in the postseason, so he gets painted with the brush of failure for a whole host of team shortcomings. Thats what comes with being a superstar. This Capitals team is flawed. They rank in the bottom third of the league in Fenwick Close (measuring shot attempts, not including blocks, at even strength, with the score close), which is a good indication of team puck possession, yet Ovechkin has relatively solid possession numbers. If you want to break down a players overall contribution, and feel that you must use one statistic in order to do so (better yet, dont), then at least reduce the impact of others on the ice and look at the possession stats, because it wont matter that linemates arent finishing or that, for whatever reason, goaltenders arent stopping the puck. Shooting and save percentages fluctuate and while they affect perception -- just ask Tyler Bozak -- they dont get to the bottom of a players on-ice contribution, and so it is with Ovechkin this year, who is having a fine season, no matter what his plus-minus says. Scott Cullen can be reached at Scott.Cullen@bellmedia.ca and followed on Twitter at http://twitter.com/tsnscottcullen. For more, check out TSN Fantasy on Facebook. Kenny Young Jersey . -- Terry Francona likened the atmosphere at Kauffman Stadium on Tuesday to a playoff game in October. Baltimore Ravens Jerseys .Y. - Carey Price had an early feeling that one goal might be enough to settle the latest matchup between his Montreal Canadiens and longtime Original Six foe, the New York Rangers. http://www.cheapravensshoponline.com/Youth-Lamar-Jackson-Ravens-Jersey/ . Burkes Flames are one of several teams involved in heavy trade speculation going into next Wednesdays 3pm et deadline, with the most prominent name in play being forward Michael Cammalleri.Philadelphia, PA (SportsNetwork.com) - The Boston Bruins started last season strong only to disappoint at the end with a second-round playoff exit at the hands of the hated Montreal Canadiens. Claude Juliens club is hoping to do the opposite in 2014-15, a season that has been characterized by inconsistency, injuries and problems caused by a salary cap crunch. Until recently, it was easy to forget the Bruins entered this season as the reigning Presidents Trophy winners and a favorite to win the Eastern Conference. Lately, however, it seems Boston is trying to get our attention and remind us what makes the Bruins an intriguing choice to win it all when the chase for the Cup culminates later in 2015. Tuesday evening in Boston, the boys from Beantown will get a chance to see if the progress they have made of late is the sign of even better things to come, or if there is still more work to be done. The Bruins will host the Atlantic Division leaders and theyll carry some momentum into the showdown with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Boston enters the divisional battle on a three-game winning streak and also has managed to record a point in nine of its last 10 outings, sporting a 6-1-3 mark over the stretch. Although the Bruins have improved enough to get themselves into a playoff spot at the moment, the club hasnt given up on winning the division title. Winning Tuesdays clash at TD Garden would be a good step toward achieving the goal, but with eight points still separating the Bruins and Lightning, its going to take more than one victory to win the Atlantic. However, the meeting could serve as a message game for Boston, particularly if it goes the way recent encounters between the Bs and Bolts have gone. After all, Tuesdays tilt only marks the first of four scheduled meetings between the clubs during the 2014-15 season, giving Boston ample opportunities to make up ground on the division leaders between now and the end of the regular season. The fact that the final three meetings in 2014-15 will take place from March 12-April 11 means Tuesdays encounter is a tone setter for the entire season series. For the Bruins, it offers a chance to reintroduce themselves to the Lightning, a team that hasnt been competitive in the recent history of this series. The Bruins have taken eight straight from Tampa both overall and at home and the Lightning have been outscored 30-8 while losing their last eight trips to The Hub. Thats an awful lot of bad history for the Lightning to get over, and Boston hopes it can plant a seed of doubt by extending Tamppas miserable record in this series. Robert Griffin III Ravens Jersey. . The Bolts also lost a 7-3 decision Monday in Philadelphia, getting routed by a Flyers team which normally has trouble beating teams ahead of them in the standings. That was clearly not the case this time. Philly ran the Lighting out of the Wells Fargo Center despite there being a 19-point gap between the clubs in the standings before the puck dropped. Prior to the lopsided setback against the Flyers, Tampa Bay was being hailed in recent weeks as the Easts top team. With the Lightning knocked down one peg in Philadelphia, the Bruins hope to further tarnish Tampas reputation by continuing their dominance in this series. It probably isnt going to help the Lightning that neither star defenseman Victor Hedman nor leading scorer Tyler Johnson are expected to play tonight after getting injured in Mondays game. Hedmans absence could be particularly noticeable, as the big and talented physical defenseman is one of the few guys in the world worthy of garnering comparisons to Boston star blueliner Zdeno Chara. One complaint consistently hurled at the NHL is the regular season is too long and doesnt really matter. The critique works when you cherry pick certain matchups throughout the season, but its pretty clear a game like Tuesdays clash at the Garden is not one that can be dismissed as merely one part of an 82-game slog. There simply is too much for both the Bruins and Lightning to prove for this one to be a dud. On the practical side, Boston simply needs the points to get where it wants to go. You can bet the Bs also are tired of hearing how Tampa is the class of the East when only months ago it was Boston which was most commonly being singled out for that distinction. The Lightning, meanwhile, are the classic case of a young, talented team trying to get over the hump against a rival which was owned the recent battles between the clubs. In boxing, they say styles make fights. This one pits the speed and offensive talent of Tampa Bay against the physical play and defensive prowess of Juliens Bruins. Its obvious Boston has dictated the pace in recent encounters, but in light of the ups and downs the club has faced in 2014-15, this is a chance for the Bs to prove themselves all over. If they are able to impose their will on Tampa once again, then the spotlight will shift ever so slightly to the Boston side until the clubs meet again. We know the importance of this game ... for both teams, Julien said. A big challenge for us, and probably a big challenge for them. 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