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Penalty Recap: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ra
in Quasselecke 19.03.2019 04:15von panxing18 • 393 Beiträge
vens Welcome Bills Jason Croom Jersey , fans of the Buffalo Bills, to the week one penalty recap. I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that Penalty Harm returns with the regular season! The bad news is that the Bills offered up plenty of data points. The worst news is that the frogurt is also cursed. Standard and Advanced MetricsPenalty countsNeither the Buffalo Bills nor Baltimore Ravens did well using the traditional metric of “how many flags were thrown.” The 2018 season kicked off with an average of eight flags assessed per team (the left set of bars). Both the Bills and Ravens helped to raise this average. Both teams were even worse when it came to flags thrown, landing at twelve apiece. For those of you new to my recaps, I put stock in offset and declined penalties, as they help create a sense of a team’s tendency to commit penalties. The term “True Count” is used to reflect the total yellow laundry. Penalty yardsDespite a high count, the Buffalo Bills were nearly average in assessed yards. That suggests a tendency to skew toward procedural penalties, such as false starts. We’ll see if that’s what happened shortly. The Ravens, then, were even more skewed in that direction. While they were one higher than league average in assessed count, they were well below that average in assessed yards. For true yards, any positive gains wiped out by a penalty are counted in that total. We’ll have a couple examples of this below. The NFL does track a similar statistic, but not exactly as I do it. Therefore my metric of “true yards” is not available league wide. What the chart easily shows though is that the Bills negated 24 yards in addition to their assessed yards. Baltimore only negated 17. Penalty HarmBaltimore RavensFor a brief rundown of what penalty harm is, an explanation can be found at the bottom. For those of you familiar with the project Cheap Kyle Williams Jersey , here we go.At 1.0 Harm or under, the penalty is typically a boo-boo rather than a “shot ourselves in the foot” situation. The Ravens had quite a few of these. For these or any other penalty I don’t explain here, feel free to ask away in the comments. There’s oodles of data that isn’t included every week. Matt Judon was lucky that his unnecessary roughness call occurred so close to the end zone. It was assessed as eight yards (half the distance to the goal) and gave the Bills a first down from second for the remainder of the 1.8 harm. Alex Lewis wiped out a 14-yard gain to land at 2.4 Harm (10 yards plus 14 yards). Brandon Carr was called for defensive pass interference. He set the Bills up with a first down and gave them a free 20 yards for a total of 3.0 Harm. This was the fourth play in a row with a penalty and gave the Bills their best chance at a touchdown all day. Judon’s flag kicked off the chain of events. Wedged in between were flags from Dion Dawkins and Vlad Ducasse. And yeah, the GIFs are carrying over into the regular season. Below, we have the most egregious penalty of the day for Baltimore. Willie Snead’s offensive pass interference flag wiped out a touchdown, which is about the worst way a penalty can hurt a team. The 7.0 Harm for that factor adds to the 13 yards (10 assessed, 3 impacted) for 8.3 Harm. Snead’s actions were necessary to help the Ravens score, too, but he could easily have avoided the flag by being more subtle in his “rub” route. The Baltimore Ravens ended the day with 18.5 Total Harm. After doing these for quite some time, a team should aim for a number at 10.0 or below. Low teens usually indicates some impact on the game. If the Ravens hadn’t run away on the scoreboard, their penalties would be a talking point. Buffalo BillsA repeated point that I’ve seen this week is that the Bills wiped out a ton of big plays via penalty. Eh. Not really. Only four penalties wiped out any gain. Three of these were for less than five yards. Only John Miller’s holding call (4.4 Harm) negated a big play. The 15 yards he wiped out from Josh Allen to Jeremy Kerley came in the fourth quarter when the game was already long lost. Also critical to the conversation is that the Miller flag and only one other on the day negated a first down.One could argue that the high volume of penalties disrupted the offensive rhythm, which is a more valid argument. To be clear, though Bills Corey Bojorquez Jersey , penalties were not a major factor in explaining Buffalo’s offensive struggles. Deon Lacey made a critical error and lucked out when Tremaine Edmunds bailed him out on the next snap by forcing a fumble. The Ravens were 4th and 5 backed up on their own end of the field and Lacey was caught in the neutral zone on the punt attempt. This gave the Ravens a fresh set of downs, and earned Lacey a 3.5 Harm flag. Taron Johnson had the worst penalty of the day for the Bills at 4.8 Harm (seen below). Johnson’s defensive pass interference gave up 28 yards and two free downs. The pass was, in all probability, uncatchable, making this call a fringe one. How the contact is sold by the “victim” might also have been a factor. While the Bills didn’t have any single really bad penalty, they had several that were pretty bad. They combined for 20.4 Harm, which is a very bad day. What is Penalty Harm? Traditional metrics of count and yards give very poor context into how badly a penalty impacted the game. Deon Lacey’s five yarder is a prime example. On the stat sheet it goes down the same as a false start, but it’s easy to see the two penalties are drastically different in outcome. Penalty Harm is an attempt to quantify other ways in which a flag hurts a team to red flag the worst penalties for discussion. How is it assessed? 0.1 unit of harm for every yard assessed0.1 unit of harm for every yard negated by penalty1.0 unit of harm for every down the penalty gave back to the opponent (or took away from your team like intentional grounding)3.0 units for negating a field goal, 7.0 for a touchdown4.0 units for negating a turnover Whenever Andy Dalton is spotted by a Bills fan, he'll hear another "thank you" for helping Buffalo break its long streak of playoff futility.This weekend, Dalton and his foundation are saying "thank you" in return.Dalton, his wife Jordan and their foundation will donate to the Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center in Buffalo while the Bengals are in town to play a preseason game on Sunday.Dalton became one of the most popular sports figures in Buffalo on New Year's Eve when his 49-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Boyd with 49 seconds left sent the Bengals to a 31-27 win in Baltimore. The fourth-down pass eliminated the Ravens and gave the Bills their first playoff appearance since 1999.Buffalo's playoff drought was the longest in the NFL and the longest among the four major professional sports in North America. Immediately, Dalton began getting donations to his foundation from fans in Buffalo. He's been thanked in person countless times by Bills fans over the months."I've heard I should run for mayor Bills Matt Milano Jersey ," Dalton said . "I've heard I'll never have to pay for anything in Buffalo. So we'll see."It wasn't a fad. Donations continued after the Bills lost their playoff game against Jacksonville. So have the in-person shows of gratitude."If I go anywhere and there's somebody from Buffalo, they're going to come up to me and tell me they're a Bills fan or they come from Buffalo or have some tie to Buffalo," Dalton said. "That hasn't gone away since the play happened."It's really cool and crazy that it's a completely different fan base that has a lot of love for me, and obviously for Tyler, too."On a fourth-and-12 play, Dalton found Boyd open just inside the Ravens 25-yard line. The receiver slipped through an attempted tackle on his way to the winning touchdown, which set off a wild celebration in the Buffalo locker room.Dalton said that as of this week, his foundation has received 17,000 donations for more than $450,000 that can be traced to the Buffalo area. The Andy and Jordan Foundation helps seriously ill and physically challenged children.Boyd estimates he has received more than $100,000 in donations that went to a youth sports league in his hometown of Clairton, Pennsylvania.Dalton thinks the Bengals will be warmly welcomed Sunday when they take the field for the third preseason game. The teams have deepened their connection in the offseason: The Bengals traded with the Bills for left tackle Cordy Glenn and signed linebacker Preston Brown, and the Bills signed former Bengals quarterback AJ McCarron and center Russell Bodine."If you're looking at social media Rafael Bush Jersey , I think there will be a pretty good ovation," Dalton said.Bills coach Sean McDermott is touched by how fans have responded to Dalton, and also by how the Bengals quarterback is giving back to Buffalo."What a strong moment," McDermott said. "It gives me chills just to think about it. So many times ... you get, 'Hey, this is this team and that team,' and you kind of get on your own individual islands and everyone's on their own island and team."But what a great testament to paying it forward and what Andy and his wife have decided to do and give back to our community that gave to them."FOCUS ON LINE: The right side of the Bengals' offensive line struggled against the Cowboys last week, but coach Marvin Lewis was upbeat about it Wednesday, saying the line overall is much better than a year ago."I feel really good where we are, no doubt about it," Lewis said.MUM ON EIFERT: Lewis declined to tip his hand whether tight end Tyler Eifert would make his preseason debut in Buffalo. He had another back procedure last season and wasn't cleared to practice when training camp opened. Eifert was one of only three active Bengals who didn't get into the game at Dallas.AP Sports Writer John Wawrow contributed to this report.
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